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The reality is that complexity sells better. A politician’s eyes look a bit odd in a blurry photograph. We all exhibit the same superstitious behavior when we believe we can influence chaotic or simple systems.An important point to note is that Occam’s razor does not state that the simplest hypothesis is the correct one, but states rather that it is the best option before the establishment of empirical evidence. It may seem like the opposite is true, but complexity bias is, in fact, another cognitive shortcut. In "Wikipedia: The Dumbing Down of World Knowledge" (2010), journalist Edwin Black characterized the content of articles as a mixture of "truth, half-truth, and some falsehoods". But rest assured, that is not our intention.In stock market investing, as in many areas of daily life, we tend to believe that complex strategies are the most successful. If what we are paying for seems too simple, we have the impression that something better is probably out there somewhere. Faced with randomness, the participants saw complexity.If we can’t fully comprehend the decisions that are made for us and about us by the government then how we can we possibly revolt or react in an effective way? Here we explore a better way to learn and enjoy the process. That’s usually the option with the most assumptions and regressions. They try to keep at it for a while. If […]In a 1989 paper entitled “Sensible reasoning in two tasks: Rule discovery and hypothesis evaluation,” Hilary F. Farris and Russell Revlin evaluated the topic. One bird spun in counterclockwise circles. Yes, we have a responsibility to educate ourselves more on the big issues, but I also think it’s important that politicians and journalists meet us halfway.The quest for the perfect coffee or tea maker has been around as long as the drinks themselves. The term denotes an irrational preference for complexity over simple approaches that are faster, cheaper and safer. Both are simple beverages, made from water and coffee beans or tea leaves. Tea ceremonies are particularly complex, sometimes requiring years of study to master the intricacies. A much smarter individual must have developed a complex solution using more advanced knowledge than what we can comprehend. We are complex systems. A highly indebted person tries to negotiate a few dollars off her Internet bill while she does not realize she lives in a house well beyond her means and has a brand-new car that costs a fortune. Skinner placed hungry pigeons in cages equipped with a random-food-delivery mechanism. Let me illustrate this point with an example. Here’s why we should temper those expectations. Terms like these often mean very little, but we see them and imagine that they signify a product that’s superior to alternatives. In fact, there is no real order, and prediction is incredibly difficult at best.This is why complexity is less common than we think. As a result, when we need to solve a problem, we may ignore simple solutions — thinking “that will never work” — and instead favor complex ones.And so on. Most people in most cultures drink tea or coffee each day.
When we succumb to complexity bias, we are focusing too hard on the tricky 10% and ignoring the easy 90%.The bird behaves as if there were a causal relation between its behavior and the presentation of food, although such a relation is lacking. Someone experiencing financial difficulties may stress over the technicalities of their telephone bill while ignoring the large sums of money they spend on cocktails.Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one.
The reality is that complexity sells better. A politician’s eyes look a bit odd in a blurry photograph. We all exhibit the same superstitious behavior when we believe we can influence chaotic or simple systems.An important point to note is that Occam’s razor does not state that the simplest hypothesis is the correct one, but states rather that it is the best option before the establishment of empirical evidence. It may seem like the opposite is true, but complexity bias is, in fact, another cognitive shortcut. In "Wikipedia: The Dumbing Down of World Knowledge" (2010), journalist Edwin Black characterized the content of articles as a mixture of "truth, half-truth, and some falsehoods". But rest assured, that is not our intention.In stock market investing, as in many areas of daily life, we tend to believe that complex strategies are the most successful. If what we are paying for seems too simple, we have the impression that something better is probably out there somewhere. Faced with randomness, the participants saw complexity.If we can’t fully comprehend the decisions that are made for us and about us by the government then how we can we possibly revolt or react in an effective way? Here we explore a better way to learn and enjoy the process. That’s usually the option with the most assumptions and regressions. They try to keep at it for a while. If […]In a 1989 paper entitled “Sensible reasoning in two tasks: Rule discovery and hypothesis evaluation,” Hilary F. Farris and Russell Revlin evaluated the topic. One bird spun in counterclockwise circles. Yes, we have a responsibility to educate ourselves more on the big issues, but I also think it’s important that politicians and journalists meet us halfway.The quest for the perfect coffee or tea maker has been around as long as the drinks themselves. The term denotes an irrational preference for complexity over simple approaches that are faster, cheaper and safer. Both are simple beverages, made from water and coffee beans or tea leaves. Tea ceremonies are particularly complex, sometimes requiring years of study to master the intricacies. A much smarter individual must have developed a complex solution using more advanced knowledge than what we can comprehend. We are complex systems. A highly indebted person tries to negotiate a few dollars off her Internet bill while she does not realize she lives in a house well beyond her means and has a brand-new car that costs a fortune. Skinner placed hungry pigeons in cages equipped with a random-food-delivery mechanism. Let me illustrate this point with an example. Here’s why we should temper those expectations. Terms like these often mean very little, but we see them and imagine that they signify a product that’s superior to alternatives. In fact, there is no real order, and prediction is incredibly difficult at best.This is why complexity is less common than we think. As a result, when we need to solve a problem, we may ignore simple solutions — thinking “that will never work” — and instead favor complex ones.And so on. Most people in most cultures drink tea or coffee each day.
When we succumb to complexity bias, we are focusing too hard on the tricky 10% and ignoring the easy 90%.The bird behaves as if there were a causal relation between its behavior and the presentation of food, although such a relation is lacking. Someone experiencing financial difficulties may stress over the technicalities of their telephone bill while ignoring the large sums of money they spend on cocktails.Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one.