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According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices in 2020 to average over $83.6/b just to balance its budget and to be over $55.3/b to ensure the current account is in surplus; we are currently forecasting an average oil price of $34/b in 2020.
COVID-19 will precipitate ‘peak demand’ for oil with dramatic consequences on oil-exporting countries in the short and medium run. This refers to how much a country has in foreign currency (FX) reserves and in its sovereign wealth fund. Get access to the digital pdf and have the physical magazine delivered to your door.Five interrelated economic factors will determine the fate of the oil-exporting countries over the rest of 2020 and through 2021The final area of vulnerability to be considered is the country’s external position. Countries running current account deficits, such as Oman, will find themselves under even greater pressure in an era of low oil prices. Exporting countries are now facing the triple whammy of slashed oil prices, curtailed production and an economic downturn due to the impact of the new coronavirus 2019.In conclusion, regardless of the cost of extraction of oil, most oil-exporting countries, with the notable exception of the US, need higher oil prices to ensure their macroeconomic stability. Even though Saudi Arabia can make a profit with oil prices heading towards single digits, the Kingdom has become so dependent on oil production to keep the economy functioning, prices need to be a lot higher. This column provides a perspective on the role of monetary policy in these countries at different horizons. Can Saudi Arabia and Russia survive or even thrive from the oil price fall? In addition, how diversified a country’s export position is will also affect its vulnerability to low oil prices. Finally, there is the question of how easily governments can cut back spending in response to lower oil prices without raising popular protests.
The West Texas Intermediate benchmark, the key gauge of U.S. crude prices, tumbled into negative territory Monday for … That figure represents a -50.3% drop in value since 2011 and a -44.4% decline from 2014 to 2015.
I am a New York City-based contributor to Forbes.com, where I cover all things digital and the CFO. Professionally, I guide large companies in the areas of digitalMy interests include mentoring the next generation of leaders, as well as riding horses, boxing, and traveling to historical places.I am a New York City-based contributor to Forbes.com, where I cover all things digital and the CFO. Professionally, I guide large companies in the areas of digital transformation, innovation, and data science. Most recently, I led Silicon Valley-based machine learning and natural language processing company into an exit with a supply chain analytics company. I have a 20 year global (China, Europe, Israel, & USA) career performing C-suite (P&L) and consulting roles in the finance, government, media, tech/IT, and telecom sectors. I hold a BA in Mathematics from The Citadel.“In this scenario of low oil demand, the supply glut from oil exporting countries will increase the revenues and margins for terminal and large crude oil vessel owners in Q2 2020,” according to the oil and gas research team at Acuity Knowledge PartnersWhat Negative Oil Prices Mean To The Top Exporting Countries The African continent is home to five of the top 30 oil-producing countries in the world. In the short run, (independent) monetary policy should flexibly target inflation. In Kuwait, oil exports account for around 70% of total exports; whereas in the US this figure is around 12%.With oil prices having gone negative for the first time ever, it raises the question whether oil-exporting countries can survive this latest crash.
According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices in 2020 to average over $83.6/b just to balance its budget and to be over $55.3/b to ensure the current account is in surplus; we are currently forecasting an average oil price of $34/b in 2020.
COVID-19 will precipitate ‘peak demand’ for oil with dramatic consequences on oil-exporting countries in the short and medium run. This refers to how much a country has in foreign currency (FX) reserves and in its sovereign wealth fund. Get access to the digital pdf and have the physical magazine delivered to your door.Five interrelated economic factors will determine the fate of the oil-exporting countries over the rest of 2020 and through 2021The final area of vulnerability to be considered is the country’s external position. Countries running current account deficits, such as Oman, will find themselves under even greater pressure in an era of low oil prices. Exporting countries are now facing the triple whammy of slashed oil prices, curtailed production and an economic downturn due to the impact of the new coronavirus 2019.In conclusion, regardless of the cost of extraction of oil, most oil-exporting countries, with the notable exception of the US, need higher oil prices to ensure their macroeconomic stability. Even though Saudi Arabia can make a profit with oil prices heading towards single digits, the Kingdom has become so dependent on oil production to keep the economy functioning, prices need to be a lot higher. This column provides a perspective on the role of monetary policy in these countries at different horizons. Can Saudi Arabia and Russia survive or even thrive from the oil price fall? In addition, how diversified a country’s export position is will also affect its vulnerability to low oil prices. Finally, there is the question of how easily governments can cut back spending in response to lower oil prices without raising popular protests.
The West Texas Intermediate benchmark, the key gauge of U.S. crude prices, tumbled into negative territory Monday for … That figure represents a -50.3% drop in value since 2011 and a -44.4% decline from 2014 to 2015.
I am a New York City-based contributor to Forbes.com, where I cover all things digital and the CFO. Professionally, I guide large companies in the areas of digitalMy interests include mentoring the next generation of leaders, as well as riding horses, boxing, and traveling to historical places.I am a New York City-based contributor to Forbes.com, where I cover all things digital and the CFO. Professionally, I guide large companies in the areas of digital transformation, innovation, and data science. Most recently, I led Silicon Valley-based machine learning and natural language processing company into an exit with a supply chain analytics company. I have a 20 year global (China, Europe, Israel, & USA) career performing C-suite (P&L) and consulting roles in the finance, government, media, tech/IT, and telecom sectors. I hold a BA in Mathematics from The Citadel.“In this scenario of low oil demand, the supply glut from oil exporting countries will increase the revenues and margins for terminal and large crude oil vessel owners in Q2 2020,” according to the oil and gas research team at Acuity Knowledge PartnersWhat Negative Oil Prices Mean To The Top Exporting Countries The African continent is home to five of the top 30 oil-producing countries in the world. In the short run, (independent) monetary policy should flexibly target inflation. In Kuwait, oil exports account for around 70% of total exports; whereas in the US this figure is around 12%.With oil prices having gone negative for the first time ever, it raises the question whether oil-exporting countries can survive this latest crash.